Research on the Competitiveness of ASEAN Economies and Policies

 

The Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI) at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP), National University of Singapore (NUS), seeks to contribute to the understanding of the situation and provide meaningful research through our continuing series of annual studies on the ASEAN region. This 2020 edition of the Annual Competitiveness Analysis and Impact of COVID-19 on ASEAN will seek to analyse effects of the first year of the pandemic, documenting and providing key insights into the policies adopted by each member state and ASEAN collectively.

Competitiveness of ASEAN Economies

Author/s: ZHANG, Xuyao and TAN, Kway Guan

Publisher: Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI)

Author/s: ZHANG, Xuyao and TAN, Kway Guan

Publisher: Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI)

Author/s: ZHANG, Xuyao and TAN, Kway Guan

Publisher: Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI)

Author/s: ABEYSINGHE, Tilak and ZHANG, Xuyao

Publisher: Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI)

For better or for worse, the COVID-19 pandemic has re-shaped the global economy. Online businesses featuring remote communication have waxed, and traditional industries that involve in-person contact have waned. Such a huge economic shift has given rise to structural unemployment, predominantly of low-skilled workers in shrinking industries. Although the government can provide subsidies in the short run, facilitating labour transfers from shrinking to growing industries is inevitable for long-run labour quality growth.

The pandemic also caused underemployment in two ways: 1) individuals worked for fewer hours than necessary or desired, and 2) individuals worked in lower-paying jobs that do not match their skill set. Both situations led to lower productivity levels. Thus, the significance of this study lies in providing a benchmark for policymakers to reckon the labour quality movement for ASEAN-5 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) and the sub-national economies of China, India and Indonesia.

If you would like to request for an e-copy of the whole book, please drop us an email at decb64_YWNpQG51cy5lZHUuc2c=_decb64.

December 2019

Annual Competitiveness Analysis and Impact Estimation of Welfare Spending on Fiscal Sustainability of ASEAN Economies

Author/s: TAN, Khee Giap, KANG, Woojin, TAN, Kway Guan and Doris, LIEW Wan Yin

Publisher: Unigrow Creative Print Pte Ltd

Author/s: TAN, Khee Giap, Sasidaran, GOPALAN and Jigyasa, SHARMA

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd

Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI) at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP), National University of Singapore (NUS) started producing its flagship analysis of competitiveness covering the sub-national economies of India on an annual basis since 2013. A unique feature of ACI's research comes from an effort to recognise the heterogeneity of India and how the variations in the dynamics of competitiveness pan out at the sub-national level. This book entitled Annual Competitiveness Analysis and Impact Estimation of Exchange Rates on Exports from Sub-National Economies of India not only undertakes a comprehensive and robust analysis of competitiveness in India's 36 sub-national economies but also features an empirical analysis of the impact of exchange rate movements and volatility on exports from sub-national economies of India.

Overall, the analysis we provide in this book relating to different dimensions of competitiveness of India's sub-national economies can not only stand up to academic scrutiny as it is grounded in rigorous methodological foundations but also remains accessible and appealing to policymakers as we offer tailored policy recommendations based on our analysis that will enable them to take appropriate policy interventions in their sub-national economies to improve their overall competitiveness.

Author/s: VU Tien Loc, TAN Khee Giap, LUU Nguyen Trieu Duong and NGUYEN Duy

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd

Drawing on the studies by the Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI) at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP), National University of Singapore (NUS), this book titled Balanced, Sustainable and Competitiveness Enhancement Study for Vietnam: A Critical Evaluation with Development Potentials, which is a joint research collaboration between the National Research Project on Improving Vietnam's Competitiveness and ACI–LKYSPP–NUS, provides a detailed assessment of the Vietnamese economy. We contend that Vietnam is at a critical juncture in its development whereby a new wave of far-reaching reforms is required to address persistent structural weaknesses and unleash the country's economic potentials. In addition, Vietnam's new growth model must tackle widening regional disparities which puts Vietnam at risk of becoming one country with two economies where the southern region of Vietnam pulls too far ahead of its northern and central counterparts. Based on our analysis, we propose a comprehensive policy roadmap for Vietnam to achieve balanced and sustainable development for enhanced competitiveness. The successful completion of this reform agenda will set Vietnam firmly on a dynamic growth path which will allow the country to catch up with the more advanced ASEAN member states by 2040.

ISBN: 978-981-3273-02-3 (hardcover)
ISBN: 978-981-3273-04-7 (ebook)
Author/s: TAN Khee Giap, LUU NGUYEN Trieu Duong, CHUAH Hui Yin and NGUYEN Duy

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd

This book titled 2017 Annual Competitiveness Analysis and Impact of Exchange Rates on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to ASEAN Economies recount the development experience of ASEAN over the past 50 years, describe the long-term mega-trends which will shape ASEAN's development trajectory, and propose a development vision with actionable policy recommendations for ASEAN to become the fourth-largest economy in the world by 2030.

Into its fifth edition, the book updates the annual economic competitive analysis for ASEAN-10 conducted by the Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI). It also introduces an innovation to the institute's methodological framework which is the use of Shapley values to come up with objective weights for indicators, sub-environments and environments in the competitiveness index. This methodological innovation not only adds an element of objectivity in terms of the assignment of weights, but also validates the robustness of results obtained from the competitiveness studies over the past years.

Recognising the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) to growth and development in the region, the book also presents an empirical investigation of the drivers of FDI inflows, with specific focus on the effects of exchange rate and its volatility. For a group of economies looking to leverage on FDI and trade to transform themselves into the fourth-largest economy in the world, it is important for ASEAN to achieve high external competitiveness, especially in terms of the member states' real effective exchange rates (REER). These research findings make important academic and policy contributions by teasing out the relationship between REER levels, volatility and FDI in the ASEAN context.

Finally, the book collates speeches by academics and policy-makers on issues of key interests to the future development of ASEAN. It contains the reflection on the ASEAN Charter by Professor Tommy Koh, Ambassador-at-Large at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore. Moreover, the discussions on the One Belt One Road initiative and its implication for the region by Mr K Shanmugam, Minister for Home Affairs and Minister for Law of Singapore; and Professor Liew Mun Leong, Chairman of Surbana Jurong and Changi Airport Group as well as Provost Chair and Professor of NUS make this book a valuable compendium for policy-makers, thinkers, and anyone who has an interest in Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific.

ISBN: 978-981-3273-05-4 (hardcover)
ISBN: 978-981-3273-07-8 (ebook) 

Author/s: TAN, Khee Giap, NGUYEN, Le Phuong Anh and LUU NGUYEN, Trieu Duong

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd

The book 2016 Annual Competitiveness Analysis and Growth Slowdown Analysis for ASEAN-10 begins by presenting the insights of Mr George Yeo, Former Minister for Foreign Affairs of Singapore, who provides a thoughtful reflection on identities and their continued relevance for policy-making. It then provides an update to the annual competitiveness analysis for ASEAN-10. Based on a rich dataset of 121 indicators, the study covers four environments of competitiveness: (1) Macroeconomic Stability, (2) Government and Institutional Setting, (3) Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions, and (4) Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development. It then presents each economy's strengths and weaknesses, and conducts "what-if" policy simulations to offer insights into the ASEAN economies. Furthermore, given prevailing worries about ASEAN economies falling into the "middle-income trap", growth slowdown analysis for the ASEAN economies is conducted. Through income-group specific econometric models, determinants of growth slowdown are identified and predictive probability of slowdown for each ASEAN economy is computed. Finally, progress of economic reforms in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam is evaluated, from which policy implications for these countries' future development are drawn.

ISBN: 978-981-3226-75-3 (hardcover)
ISBN: 978-981-3226-77-7 (ebook)
Author/s: TAN Khee Giap, NGUYEN, Le Phuong Anh, Sasidaran, GOPALAN and LUU NGUYEN, Trieu Duong

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd

In the tradition of the Asia Competitiveness Institute at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, our research publications make a distinctive contribution to the understanding of the economic development in Asia by evaluating and tracking competitiveness for the 10 ASEAN member states annually since 2000 through combining leading-edge methodologies with an extensive dataset. In this third edition, the competitiveness ranking and simulation study for ASEAN-10 are improved and updated with 121 indicators across four environments. An in-depth assessment of the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) offers important implications for future integration initiatives in the broader Asia Pacific region. Novel empirical frameworks are also applied to provide an estimation of annual agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth in eight ASEAN economies and to shed light on the drivers of growth in the travel and tourism industry in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

ISBN: 978-981-3147-44-7 (hardcover)
ISBN: 978-981-3147-47-8 (ebook)
Author/s: TAN Khee Giap, Sangiita Wei Cher YOONG, Sasidaran GOPALAN and Le Phuong Anh NGUYEN

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd

With the launch of the ASEAN Economic Community in December 2015, ASEAN is at a crossroads once again. Having braved through various crises since its establishment in 1967, how can ASEAN leverage on increasing integration to maintain its growth momentum in the pursuit of greater competitiveness and prosperity? Combining leading-edge research methodologies with an extensive database, the Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI) at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, has evaluated and tracked competitiveness for the ten ASEAN members annually since 2000. In this second edition, the competitiveness ranking and simulation study for the ASEAN-10 economies are improved and updated with 121 indicators across four environments. The Geweke causality analysis is employed to offer deeper insights into the transitional economies as well as the top performers in the region. These novel empirical frameworks are placed within the overarching strategic thrust of the ASEAN-centric Asia Economic Connectivity Vision 2030 which encompasses astute workable policies through five broad proposals for furthering regional economic cooperation in Asia.

ISBN: 978-981-3108-58-5 (hardcover)
ISBN: 978-981-3109-72-8 (ebook)

April 2013

Annual Analysis of Competitiveness, Development Strategies and Public Policies on ASEAN-10: 2000-2010

Author/s: Linda LOW and LIM Lijuan Amanda

Publisher: Pearson Education South Asia Pte Ltd

This book develops a new competitiveness index that ranks the ASEAN-10 economies on various dimensions measuring competitiveness. Our notion of competitiveness is substantially more nuanced and holistic than that of the more traditional and popular competitiveness indices in the literature. The aim of this so-called ACI index is to help policy makers in each member country to inform and assess their own status in terms of competitiveness as well as identify the gaps that they need to attend to benefit from regional integration.

ISBN: 978-981-4514-23-1 (hardcover)

Author/s: CHEN Xian An, Kevin, QUAH, Say Jye, PHAN, Hanh, HUANG, Yijia and Janitra, HARYANTO
Author/s: QUAH, Say Jye and CHEN Xian An, Kevin
Author/s: XIE, Taojun, CHAN, Mark and DETROS, Keith
Author/s: ZHANG, Xuyao and ZHU, Yan
Author/s: LEE, Shu En, LIM, Jing Zhi and SHEN Yan Shun, Lucas
Author/s: CHEAH, Wen Chong, GEORGE, Ammu, GUPTA, Sunena and XIE, Taojun
Author/s: KRÜGER, Dirk, UHLIG, Harold and XIE, Taojun
In this paper, we argue that endogenous shifts in private consumption behavior across sectors of the economy can act as a potent mitigation mechanism during an epidemic or when the economy is re-opened after a temporary lockdown. We introduce a SIR epidemiological model into a neoclassical production economy in which goods are distinguished by the degree to which they can be consumed at home rather than in a social, possibly contagious context. We demonstrate that within the model the “Swedish solution” of letting the epidemic play out without government intervention and allowing agents to shift their consumption behavior towards relatively safe sectors can lead to substantial mitigation of the economic and human costs of the COVID-19 crisis. We estimate the model on Swedish health data and then show that compared to a model in which sectors are assumed to be homogeneous in their infection risk, as in Eichenbaum, Rebelo, and Trabandt (2020), endogenous sectoral reallocation avoids more than 2/3 of the decline in aggregate output and consumption, and at the same time induces a dynamics of weekly death that accords very well with the matching and of the number of deaths within one year. Our analysis implies case fatality rates below 0.2 percent and a limit of less than 800 deaths per million for Sweden. We also characterize the allocation a social planner would choose that can dictate sectoral consumption patterns and demonstrate that the laissez-faire outcome with sectoral reallocation, while mitigating the economic and health crisis, still implies suboptimally many deaths and too massive a decline in economic activity.